Plea Tracking in the Durham County District Attorney’s Office

A recent report from the Wilson Center for Science and Justice at Duke Law produced with data gleaned in collaboration the Durham District Attorney’s office provides fresh insights into plea bargaining, detailing how prosecutors evaluate plea deals and how the process impacts charges and sentencing outcomes.

This is the second in a series of reports (read the first here) and analyzes data on 678 felony between April 2021and November 2023, highlighting patterns in charging, sentencing, demographics, dismissals and reductions, and other key data.

“We are grateful to the Durham DA’s office for being not just a great partner in this effort, but a national trailblazer,” said Wilson Center Faculty Director Brandon Garrett. “More than 90% of cases result in a plea bargain, yet that process has traditionally been a black box where the public doesn’t know how decisions are made. Durham prosecutors have committed to investing their time to document all of the factors that go into pleas, to study and improve the quality of justice.”

Through their analysis, report authors Kelly Evans, Beth Gifford, and Brandon Garrett found similar results to the first report. Nearly two-thirds of all charges were dismissed, most often because defendants pled guilty to other offenses. In about half of all cases, the charges listed in the indictment were reduced to a lower classification as part of the plea deal.

Sentencing outcomes varied depending on both the nature of the case and the background of the defendant. Roughly equal numbers of cases resulted in prison time and probation. Violent offenses were far more likely to lead to incarceration, while non-violent offenses typically resulted in probation.

Researchers also collected demographic data on defendants and on victims. Most individuals facing felony charges were Black, male, and low-income, with prior criminal histories. Black people were slightly overrepresented in the felony caseload, compared to Durham demographics. Prosecutors frequently reached out to victims—who were largely Black women—before making initial plea offers, often discussing potential terms in advance.

A key aspect of the Plea Tracker that aims to “open the black box” of the plea bargain process is asking prosecutors to document how they make their decisions. Factors influencing prosecutor decision-making included aggravating and mitigating circumstances, as well as collateral consequences. Researchers found that prosecutors were more likely to weigh aggravating factors than mitigating ones, and that they considered more aggravating than mitigating factors in cases involving Black defendants.

Legal representation also varied along racial lines. Black defendants were significantly less likely than white defendants to have private attorneys, which could impact case outcomes. Meanwhile, negotiations between prosecutors and defense attorneys played a crucial role in shaping plea agreements. When defense attorneys pushed for changes to an initial offer, it was often related to sentencing terms and charges—and in most cases, prosecutors agreed to modifications.

This plea bargaining data continues to offer critical insights into how felony cases unfold in Durham. As researchers refine their tracking methods, future analyses may shed even more light on the factors shaping plea negotiations and their broader implications for justice in the city.

“We are so grateful for the hard work and dedication of the Durham Office to implement this tracker," adds report co-author Beth Gifford. "They have offered a lot of input in the development of the tracker that we hope makes the tracker more useful for their office and others”

Read the full report here.